Evaluation
of Solar Radiation Estimation Models
The
primary objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of two
empirical models, namely the Hargreaves–Samani (HS) model and the Valiantzas
(VAL) model, for estimating solar radiation (Rs) under the climatic conditions
of Valapadi, Salem district, Tamil Nadu, India. These models were evaluated
using readily available meteorological parameters obtained from the NASA POWER
dataset. The performance of these models was assessed by comparing estimated
solar radiation with measured data and by examining their influence on FAO-56
Penman–Monteith reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) estimates.
Solar
Radiation Estimation
The
mean solar radiation values indicate that both the Hargreaves–Samani (HS) model
(23.40 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹) and the Valiantzas (VAL) model (22.27 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹)
slightly underestimate the observed solar radiation (23.48 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹). The
HS model shows only a small underestimation, whereas the VAL model exhibits a
larger deviation from the measured values.
The
variability of solar radiation estimates was analyzed using the coefficient of
variation (CV%). The measured solar radiation showed a CV of 8.06%, while the
HS model produced a CV of 8.38%, indicating that the HS estimates closely
follow the variability pattern of the measured data. In contrast, the VAL model
exhibited a higher CV of 11.44%, indicating greater variability in the
radiation estimates it produced.
The
higher variability observed in the VAL model may be attributed to the inclusion
of relative humidity as an additional parameter in the radiation estimation
process. Since relative humidity varies seasonally and responds to atmospheric
moisture conditions, it introduces additional fluctuations in the solar
radiation estimates, thereby increasing the overall variability of the model
output.
Reference Evapotranspiration Estimation
The
mean reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) values calculated using the FAO-56
Penman–Monteith method with different radiation inputs are also very similar.
The mean ET₀ obtained using measured solar radiation is 5.78 mm day⁻¹, while
ET₀ estimated using HS radiation is 5.79 mm day⁻¹, indicating a very close
agreement between the two methods. The ET₀ calculated using VAL radiation is
slightly lower at 5.58 mm day⁻¹, suggesting a minor underestimation.
The
variability of ET₀ estimates also reflects the variability in the radiation
inputs. The coefficient of variation for ET₀ calculated using measured
radiation is 14.85%, while HS-based ET₀ shows a slightly lower CV of 14.45%,
indicating stable evapotranspiration estimates. In contrast, the VAL-based ET₀
exhibits a higher CV of 17.24%, consistent with the greater variability
observed in VAL solar radiation estimates.
Overall,
the results indicate that the Hargreaves–Samani model provides solar radiation
estimates that closely track the variability of measured radiation, yielding
evapotranspiration estimates nearly identical to those obtained from measured
data. The Valiantzas model, while slightly underestimating radiation and
evapotranspiration values, captures greater variability due to the influence of
relative humidity. These findings suggest that both models can be used as
alternative approaches to estimating evapotranspiration in regions where
measured solar radiation data are limited, although the HS model shows slightly
better agreement with observed values in the Valapadi region.
Table 1. Summary of Solar Radiation
and Reference Evapotranspiration
|
Index
|
RS(Measured)
MJ m⁻² day⁻¹
|
Rs
HS
MJ m⁻² day⁻¹
|
Rs
Val
MJ m⁻² day⁻¹
|
FAO Et0
(Measured Rs)
mm day⁻¹
|
FAO Et0
(HS Rs)
mm day⁻¹
|
FAO Et0
(Val Rs)
mm day⁻¹
|
|
Mean
|
23.48
|
23.40
|
22.27
|
5.78
|
5.79
|
5.58
|
|
STD
|
1.89
|
1.96
|
2.55
|
0.86
|
0.84
|
0.96
|
|
Min
|
19.30
|
16.41
|
16.08
|
3.77
|
3.28
|
3.24
|
|
Max
|
26.05
|
26.02
|
26.45
|
6.91
|
7.12
|
6.95
|
|
25%
|
21.78
|
22.83
|
19.86
|
4.93
|
5.25
|
4.68
|
|
50%
|
24.46
|
23.78
|
23.24
|
6.16
|
6.03
|
5.95
|
|
75%
|
24.80
|
24.58
|
24.08
|
6.51
|
6.42
|
6.40
|
Table 2. Statistics of Solar Radiation and Reference
Evapotranspiration
|
S.No
|
Comparison Type
|
R²
|
SEE
|
rt
|
|
1
|
Measured Radiation vs Hargreaves-Samani Radiation
|
0.37
|
1.71
|
1
|
|
2
|
Measured Radiation vs Valiantzas Radiation
|
0.89
|
1.57
|
0.95
|
|
3
|
FAO Eto Measured Radiation vs FAO Eto with
Hargreaves-Samani Radiation
|
0.89
|
0.28
|
1.00
|
|
4
|
FAO Eto with Measured Radiation vs FAO Eto with
Valiantzas Radiation
|
0.98
|
0.26
|
0.96
|

Figure 1: Mean Monthly Maximum
Temperature for the study area

Figure 2: Mean Monthly Minimum
Temperature for the study area

Figure 3: Mean Monthly Relative
Humidity for the study area

Figure 4: Mean Monthly Measured
Solar Radiation for the study area
Seasonal
Pattern of Measured Solar Radiation
The
measured solar radiation in the Valapadi region shows a clear seasonal
variation throughout the year, influenced primarily by solar geometry, cloud
cover, and monsoonal weather conditions. The annual mean measured solar
radiation during the study period was 23.48 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹, with values ranging
from 19.30 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹ to 26.05 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹.
Higher
solar radiation levels are typically observed during the summer months
(March–June) when the region experiences clear skies and high solar elevation
angles. During this period, daily radiation values frequently range between
24.5 and 26.0 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹, corresponding closely with the upper quartile value
of 24.80 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹ and the observed maximum of 26.05 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹.
In
contrast, solar radiation decreases during the monsoon season (July–October)
due to increased cloud cover, atmospheric moisture, and rainfall associated
with southwest and northeast monsoon systems. During this period, radiation
values generally fall within the range of 21.5 to 23.0 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹, with a
lower quartile of 21.78 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹.
During
the winter season (November–February), solar radiation gradually increases
again as cloud cover decreases and atmospheric conditions stabilize. Radiation
values during this period generally range from 23.0 to 24.5 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹, close
to the median of 24.46 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹.
Overall,
the seasonal distribution of measured solar radiation in Valapadi shows higher
radiation in summer, moderate levels in winter, and relatively lower radiation
during the monsoon period. This seasonal variability directly influences
evapotranspiration rates and highlights the importance of accurate solar
radiation estimation for reliable evapotranspiration modeling in the region.
Daily
and Monthly Variation of Reference Evapotranspiration (ET₀)
The
daily variation in reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in the Valapadi region
reflects seasonal changes in solar radiation, air temperature, and atmospheric
moisture. Based on the FAO-56 Penman–Monteith method using measured solar
radiation, the average daily ET₀ during the study period was 5.78 mm day⁻¹,
with values ranging from 3.77 mm day⁻¹ to 6.91 mm day⁻¹.
The
distribution of ET₀ values indicates moderate variability throughout the year,
with a standard deviation of 0.86 mm day⁻¹. The interquartile statistics show
that 25% of the ET₀ values were below 4.93 mm day⁻¹, and 75% were below 6.51 mm
day⁻¹, indicating that most daily evapotranspiration values fall within this
range. The median ET₀ value of 6.16 mm day⁻¹ indicates that evapotranspiration
demand is relatively high for a significant portion of the year, owing to the
warm climatic conditions in the Salem region.
The
seasonal variation of ET₀ follows the typical tropical climatic pattern
observed in Tamil Nadu. Higher evapotranspiration rates are generally observed
during the summer months (March–June) when air temperature and solar radiation
are at their peak. During this period, ET₀ values frequently approach the upper
range of 6.5 to 6.9 mm day⁻¹, reflecting high atmospheric evaporative demand.
During
the monsoon season (July–October), ET₀ values tend to decrease due to increased
cloud cover, higher humidity levels, and reduced solar radiation. As a result,
evapotranspiration values typically fall within the range of 5.0 to 5.8 mm
day⁻¹ during this period.
The
winter season (November–February) shows the lowest evapotranspiration values
due to relatively lower temperatures and reduced solar radiation. During this
period, ET₀ values may decrease to approximately 3.8–5.0 mm day⁻¹, which
corresponds closely with the observed minimum value of 3.77 mm day⁻¹.
The
monthly ET₀ pattern shows a gradual increase from winter to summer, reaching
maximum levels during the pre-monsoon period, followed by a decline during the
monsoon months. This seasonal trend is consistent with the observed variations
in solar radiation and temperature in the Valapadi region. Overall, the results
indicate that evapotranspiration demand remains relatively high throughout the
year, emphasizing the importance of accurate ET₀ estimation for irrigation
management and water resource planning in the region.
Comparison
of Measured Solar Radiation with Hargreaves–Samani and Valiantzas Models
The
performance of the Hargreaves–Samani (HS) and Valiantzas (VAL) models for
estimating solar radiation (Rs) was evaluated by comparing estimated values
with measured solar radiation data for the Valapadi region. The comparison was
carried out using statistical indicators including the coefficient of
determination (R²), standard error of estimate (SEE), and ratio statistic (rt).
The
measured solar radiation during the study period had a mean of 23.48 MJ m⁻²
day⁻¹, a standard deviation of 1.89 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹, and values ranging from 19.30
to 26.05 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹. The HS model produced a mean radiation estimate of 23.40
MJ m⁻² day⁻¹, which is very close to the measured mean value, indicating a
minimal mean deviation of approximately 0.34%. The VAL model produced a
slightly lower mean radiation value of 22.27 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹, corresponding to an
underestimation of approximately 5.15% compared with the measured radiation.
In
terms of variability, the HS model exhibited a standard deviation of 1.96 MJ
m⁻² day⁻¹, comparable to that observed in the measured radiation data. In
contrast, the VAL model showed higher variability, with a standard deviation of
2.55 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹, indicating greater sensitivity to meteorological inputs,
such as relative humidity, included in the model formulation.
The
statistical performance indicators further highlight differences in model
performance. The comparison between measured radiation and HS-estimated
radiation produced a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.3697, indicating a
relatively weak linear correlation between the two datasets. The standard error
of estimate (SEE) for the HS model was 1.71 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹, indicating a moderate
deviation of the estimated values from the observed radiation. However, the
ratio statistic (rt) of 0.9964 indicates that the HS model reproduces the
overall magnitude of solar radiation very closely to the measured values.
In
contrast, the Valiantzas model demonstrated a much stronger relationship with
measured radiation, with an R² of 0.8874, indicating a high degree of
correlation between estimated and observed radiation. The SEE value of 1.57 MJ
m⁻² day⁻¹ is slightly lower than that of the HS model, suggesting improved
predictive accuracy. The rt value of 0.9483 indicates a small systematic
underestimation of solar radiation by the VAL model.
Overall,
the results indicate that while the Hargreaves–Samani model reproduces the mean
magnitude of solar radiation very closely, it shows weaker correlation with
measured radiation values. In contrast, the Valiantzas model demonstrates a
significantly stronger correlation with measured radiation and lower prediction
error, although it slightly underestimates the mean radiation levels. These
findings suggest that including relative humidity in the Valiantzas model
improves its ability to capture variability in solar radiation under the
climatic conditions of the Valapadi region.

5a) 5b)
Figure 5a – 5b: Comparison of Daily
Solar Radiation Estimated by Hargreaves-Samani and Valiantzas’ Model Versus
Measured Solar Radiation for the study area
FAO
Reference Evapotranspiration (ET₀) Using Measured, HS, and Valiantzas Radiation
Reference
evapotranspiration (ET₀) for the study area was estimated using the FAO-56
Penman–Monteith method with three different solar radiation inputs: measured
solar radiation (Rs), Hargreaves–Samani estimated radiation (HS Rs), and
Valiantzas estimated radiation (Val Rs). The ET₀ estimates were compared to
evaluate the impact of radiation estimation models on evapotranspiration
calculations.
The
mean ET₀ calculated using measured solar radiation was 5.78 mm day⁻¹, while the
ET₀ estimated using HS-derived radiation was 5.79 mm day⁻¹, indicating an
almost identical average evapotranspiration estimate between the two
approaches. In contrast, the ET₀ estimated using Valiantzas radiation was
slightly lower at 5.58 mm day⁻¹, indicating a small underestimation relative to
the measured radiation-based ET₀.
The
variability of ET₀ estimates was evaluated using the standard deviation and
coefficient of variation (CV). The ET₀ derived from measured radiation
exhibited a standard deviation of 0.86 mm day⁻¹ and a CV of 14.85%, indicating
moderate variability in evapotranspiration demand. The HS-based ET₀ showed a
similar variability with a standard deviation of 0.84 mm day⁻¹ and a CV of
14.45%, suggesting that the HS model closely reproduces the variability
observed in the measured radiation-based ET₀ estimates. The VAL-based ET₀ exhibited
slightly higher variability, with a standard deviation of 0.96 mm day⁻¹ and a
CV of 17.24%, reflecting the greater variability introduced by radiation
estimates from the Valiantzas model.
Statistical
comparison further confirms the strong agreement between the evapotranspiration
estimates derived from measured and model-estimated radiation. The relationship
between measured radiation-based ET₀ and HS radiation-based ET₀ showed a
coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.8936, indicating a strong correlation
between the two datasets. The standard error of estimate (SEE) was 0.2818 mm
day⁻¹, and the ratio statistic (rt) was 1.0014, indicating that the HS model
reproduces ET₀ values almost identical to those obtained using measured
radiation.
Similarly,
the comparison between measured radiation-based ET₀ and VAL radiation-based ET₀
showed an even stronger relationship with an R² value of 0.9821, indicating
excellent agreement between the two datasets. The SEE value was 0.2593 mm
day⁻¹, and the rt value of 0.9648 indicates a slight underestimation of ET₀
when using Valiantzas radiation.

Figure 6: Comparison of FAO-56 ET₀
calculated using measured, HS, and Valiantzas radiation in the study area.
Overall,
the results demonstrate that both the Hargreaves–Samanian and Valiantzas
radiation models can be effectively used within the FAO-56 Penman–Monteith
framework for estimating reference evapotranspiration in the Valapadi region.
While the HS model reproduces ET₀ magnitudes very closely to those obtained
using measured radiation, the Valiantzas model shows stronger statistical
correlation with measured ET₀ values, indicating its ability to better capture
radiation variability under the climatic conditions of the study area.
7a) 7b)
Figure
7a – 7b: Comparison of daily FAO ET0 estimated by substituting
measured and Solar Radiation obtained from the Hargreaves–Samani’s Model and
Valiantzas’ Model