Growth and Forecast Performance of Turmeric in India: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

ndia is the world’s main supply of turmeric, accounting for more than 90 per cent of the global turmeric trade. Considering the economic importance of this crop, an attempt has been made to assess the performance of turmeric in terms of area and production, as well as the cost of cultivation in India. Aside from that, the study used the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to project the price of turmeric in the future. The results of growth analysis of turmeric area and production in India using secondary data from 1950-51 to 2020-21 through compound growth rate revealed a positive growth pattern of the area, production, and productivity at rates of 2.60, 4.02, and 1.40 per cent per year, respectively. A total of Rs. 3,08,511 was required for one hectare of turmeric output. According to the results of forecasting methods, the price of turmeric would be Rs. 7179, Rs. 7172, Rs. 7170, Rs. 7170, and Rs. 7170 per quintal in May, June, July, August, and September, respectively, assuming the current growth rate remains the same. Due to increased turmeric arrivals, the expected values of turmeric price exhibited a falling trend in the next five months. Hence, the government should increase and maintain funding for turmeric development programmes, given the importance of turmeric in terms of export revenues and domestic requirements. If these challenges are solved, there is a lot of space to increase turmeric production in the future.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.29321/MAJ.10.000658

Pages

182 - 187

Creative Commons

Copyright

© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Madras Agricultural Students' Union in Madras Agricultural Journal (MAJ). This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited by the user.

Keywords