Trends in Production and Comparison of Cost of Production and Minimum Support Price of Coarse Cereals

In the rainfed regions of the country coarse cereals form the staple diet of the majority of the poor. Keeping in view of the importance of coarse cereals, this study estimates the Compound Growth Rate (CGR) of area, production and productivity of major coarse cereals and analyzes the trends in cost of production of coarse cereals and the Minimum Support Price (MSP) announced by the Government. The study is based on time series data on area, production and productivity of coarse cereals (bajra, maize, ragi, jowar) from 1970-71 to 2007 - 08. The 38 years data were classified at decadal intervals and the decadal trends in area, production and productivity were analyzed through CGR. The data on cost of cultivation and MSP were collected from the reports of Commission on Agriculture Costs and Prices, Government of India and compared. The difference between MSP and cost of production was highest in ragi followed by cumbu, maize and Jowar.

At all India level Rajasthan accounted for 42 percent of the bajra production in 2007-08. The other major bajra producing states are Uttar Pradesh (13 percent), Gujarat (13 percent), Haryana (12 percent) and Maharashtra (11 percent). Tamil Nadu was in 8th position in bajra production and ranks third in Productivity with 1635kg per ha in 2007-08 in India. All India bajra Production was 9.97mt from 9.57mha in 2007-08. Major maize producing States in India were Andhra Pradesh (19 per cent), Karnataka (17 per cent), Rajasthan (10 per cent) and Maharashtra(9 per cent) during 2007-08. Tamil Nadu ranked 9th in maize Production, accounting only 4 percent of all India production. Tamil Nadu recorded second position in maize Productivity with 3627 kg per ha in 2007-08. All India maize production was 18.96 m.t from an area of 8.12 m.ha in 2007-08. *Corresponding author email: ashok10tnau@yahoo.com The major ragi producing states were Uttaranchal (8.32 per cent), TamilNadu (8.17 per cent), Maharashtra (5.76 per cent) and Andhra Pradesh (3.21 per cent) in India in 2007-08. Tamil Nadu recorded the highest yield in India with 1897 kg per ha. All India production of ragi was 2.2mt from an area of 1.4m ha in 2007-08. Maharashtra (50.44 per cent), Karnataka (22.95 per cent), Madhya Pradesh (7.44 per cent) and Andhra Pradesh (5.93 per cent) were the major jowar producing States. All India production of jowar was 7.93mt from 7.76 m. ha of cultivated area in 2007-08. Tamil Nadu ranked 6 th in production and productivity in India during 2007-08. The major districts of coarse cereal production in Tamil Nadu are given in Table 1.
Keeping in view of the importance of coarse cereals this study estimates the Compound Growth Rate (CGR) of area, production and productivity of major coarse cereals and analyzes the cost of production of coarse cereals and the Minimum Support Price (MSP) announced by the Government.

Materials and Methods
The present study is based on secondary data for the last 38 years, from 1970-2008. Time series data (1970-71 to 2007-08) on area, production and productivity of coarse cereals (bajra, maize, ragi, jowar) were collected from Agriculture Statistics at a Glance 2009 and the Season and Crop Report of Tamil Nadu. The 38 years data was classified at decadal intervals, namely 1970-71 to 1979-80 (I Period), 1980-81 to 1989-90 (II Period), 1990-91 to 1999-2000(III Period) , 2000-01 to 2007-2008(IV Period) and 1970-71 to 2007-2008 (Over all period) and the decadal trends in area, production and productivity were analyzed. The data on Cost of Cultivation and Minimum Support Price were collected from the reports of Commission on Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP), Government of India. The decadal trends in area, production and productivity were studied through Compound Growth Rate (CGR) following Hemant Kumar and Purushottam (2009), Sonia and Sexana (2009) and Mohammad Taher and Ahmadi Shadmeri (2008). CGR was estimated by fitting the following exponential model: Where, y = Production/area/yield t = Time in year a and b = Parameters to be estimated The equation (1) in log form is written as: Compound Growth Rate (CGR) was then calculated as: The above mentioned equation was estimated through OLS method and the significance of b was tested with t-test.

i) Bajra
Bajra or pearl millet is an important crop of rainfed areas. Grain is comparatively high in protein and has a good amino acid balance. It contains twice as much methionine than sorghum, an important trait for organic poultry production. The grain is used to feed livestock such as cattle and pigs. The stalks are used as building material, fuel and livestock feed. The grain has the potential as a feedstock for ethanol production. The results of the analysis presented in Table 2 reveals that in India the area under bajra declined at the rate of 0.81 per cent per annum in the period from 1970-71 to [2007][2008]. But the production of bajra registered significant positive growth in the same period due to growth in productivity at the rate of 2.23 per cent per annum. In Tamil Nadu the rate of decline in area under bajra was more than the decline in India. Despite the increase in productivity by 1.91 percent, the production of bajra declined at the rate of 2.95 per cent.

ii) Maize
Maize is an important cereal in many developed and developing countries. It has multiple uses but it is chiefly grown for human and livestock consumption. It has also got number of industrial uses such as in plastics, glues, adhesives, reyon, resin, fermentable sugars, solvents, liquid fuels, pulp, paper and hard boards, corn sweeteners etc. The data on the trend in maize production given in Table 3 show that there is significant positive growth in the area, production and productivity of maize both in Tamil Nadu and India unlike in other coarse cereals. In India in the last four decades the annual compound growth of maize was 0.67 percent in area, 2.82 per cent in production and 2.15 per cent in yield. Similarly in Tamil Nadu the annual compound growth rate was 6.32 percent in area, 9.47 per cent in production and 2.00 per cent in yield. Thus in Tamil Nadu the growth in the production of maize was substantial, particularly during the period 2000-01 to 2007-2008. 1970-71 to 2007-2008 6.32*** 9.47*** 2.00*** ***, ** and*, significant at 1,5and 10 percent level of significance

iii) Ragi
Ragi or finger millet is one of the nutritious cereals, rich in calcium and other minerals. The ragi production declined at an annual rate of 0.42 per cent in India and 2.13 per cent in Tamil Nadu due to decline in area under cultivation of ragi. Productivity of ragi registered significant positive growth with an increase of 1.39 per cent in India and 1.14 per cent in Tamil Nadu in the period 1970-71 to 2007-2008. 1.14*** ***, ** and*, significant at 1,5and 10 percent level of significance

iv) Jowar
Jowar or sorghum is a popular cereal among the low income people in dryland areas. Like other cereals, sorghum is predominantly starchy and rich in iron and Phosphorus. Sorghum is predominantly cultivated with limited input under conditions of sparse rainfall and low soil fertility. It is also used for cattle feed, bio fuel, for making baked products like breads, cakes, cookies etc. The pattern of growth in the area, production and productivity of jowar is furnished in Table. 5. The area under jowar declined consistently in the last few decades both in India   191 and Tamil Nadu. The total production of jowar has declined 0.79 per cent in India and 2.52 per cent in Tamil Nadu. The productivity increased by 1.33 per cent per annum since 1970-71 in India but the increase in productivity was marginal in Tamil Nadu.

Cost of Production and Minimum Support Price
Cost of production was for various crops were published by the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP). In the CACP methodology, Cost A1 includes value of human, bullock and machine labour, seeds, insecticides and pesticides, manure, fertilizers, depreciation of implements & machinery, irrigation charges, land revenue, interest on working capital and miscellaneous expenses. Cost A2 includes cost A1+ rent paid for leased in-land. Assurance of a remunerative and stable price environment is considered very important for increasing agricultural production and productivity since the market place for agricultural produce tends to be inherently unstable, which often inflict undue losses on the growers, even when they adopt the best available technology package and produce efficiently. Towards this end, minimum support prices (MSP) for major agricultural products are fixed by the government, each year, after taking into account the recommendations of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices.
Cost of production and MSP of cereals are given in Table. 6. In cumbu cost of production per quintal was Rs. 420 while the MSP was Rs. 840. In Maize the difference between cost of production and maize was only Rs. 210 per quintal. In the case of Jowar and ragi the difference between cost of production and MSP was Rs 161 and Rs. 540 per quintal respectively.

Conclusion
The results of the analysis revealed that in India the area under bajra declined in the period from 1970-71 to [2007][2008]. But the production of bajra registered significant positive growth in the same period due to growth in productivity. There is significant positive growth in the area, production and productivity of maize both in Tamil Nadu and India unlike in other coarse cereals. The ragi production declined in India and in Tamil Nadu due to decline in area under cultivation of ragi. Productivity of ragi registered significant positive growth in India and in Tamil Nadu in the period of study. The area under jowar declined consistently in the last few decades both in India and Tamil Nadu. The difference between MSP and cost of production was the highest in ragi followed by cumbu, maize and Jowar.